Goal 15: Aboriginal over-representation in the justice system is eliminated

Measures under Goal 15 have varied in performance

The latest year of data sees police cautioning youth more and sees less children, women and men in unsentenced detention. There are also less men in corrections supervision.

However, the number of youth and adult alleged offenders processed by police and the rates for women and men returning to prison within two years has worsened.

Goal 15 directly aligns with the following Closing the Gap Outcomes and Targets

Outcome 10: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system.

• Target 10: By 2031, reduce the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults held in incarceration by at least 15 per cent.

Outcome 11: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system.

• Target 11: By 2031, reduce the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people (10‑17 years) in detention by at least 30 per cent.

Closing the Gap - How Victoria is tracking nationally

Outcome 10: In 2023-24, the age standardised rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander prisoners was 2,304.4 per 100,000 adult population across Australia compared to 1,362.1 per 100,000 in Victoria. Victoria has seen positive progress with a 22 per cent decrease in the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adult incarceration, against the target rate of 15 per cent reduction by 2031 (Closing the Gap Target 10).

Outcome 11: In 2023-24, the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 10-17 years in detention across Australia was 26.1 per 10,000 children compared to 7.3 per 10,000 in Victoria. Victoria has continued to significantly exceed Closing the Gap Target 11, with a 52.3 per cent reduction in Aboriginal youth incarceration rates since 2019, against a target for a 30 per cent reduction by 2031.

15.1 Decrease the number and eliminate the over-representation of Aboriginal children and young people in the justice system

Measure 15.1.1 Number, rate and age profile of unique youth (10-17 years) alleged offenders processed by police

The number and rate of Aboriginal unique youth alleged offenders has continued to increase since 2021. This includes young people who have been processed by way of a caution, arrest or summons. In 2023-24, there were 795 Aboriginal and 6,230 non-Aboriginal unique youth alleged offenders. This represents a rate of 737.3 per 10,000 Aboriginal young people and 98.7 per 10,000 non-Aboriginal young people. Since 2007-08, there has been an almost 50 per cent decline in the rate of non-Aboriginal unique youth alleged offenders. This historic decline has not taken place for Aboriginal unique youth alleged offenders, with an approximate reduction of 5 per cent over the same period.

When reviewing by age, in 2022-23, Aboriginal young people aged 15-17 years were recorded as alleged offenders at almost three times the rate of Aboriginal young people aged 10-14 years. This rate has not changed since 2018-19 and increased from 2.3 times since 2007-08. For the 15-17 age group, the rate of alleged offender incidents (1,277.3 per 10,000) is the highest it has been since 2010-11. For the 10-14 age group, the rate has also risen over the last five years.

Measure 15.1.2 Average daily number and rate of children and young people (10-17 years) under youth justice supervision in detention and community-based supervision

In 2023-24, the average daily number of Aboriginal children and young people in community-based supervision was 37.7. This is consistent with the average daily number in 2022-23 (38) and is significantly lower than a decade ago (97.9 in 2014-15). The average daily number has steadily decreased after an increase to 113.3 in 2015-16. In 2023-24, the rate of Aboriginal children and young people in community-based supervision was 27.2 per 10,000 Aboriginal children and young people. This is also consistent with the rate in 2022-23 (28.1) and significantly lower than a decade ago (102.2 per 10,000 Aboriginal children and young people in 2014-15). In 2023-24, the rate for Aboriginal children and young people was 9.8 times the rate for non-Aboriginal children and young people (2.8 per 10,000 non-Aboriginal children and young people). The 2023-24 rate for non-Aboriginal children and young people is consistent with the rate in 2022-23 (3.1) and is lower than the rate a decade ago (9.6 per 10,000 non-Aboriginal children and young people in 2014-15).

In 2023-24, the average daily number of Aboriginal children and young people in detention was 10.1. This is consistent with the average daily number in 2022-23 (10.3) and slightly lower than the average daily number a decade ago (13.9 in 2014-15). The highest average daily number recorded over the past decade was 20 in 2016-17. In 2023-24, the rate of Aboriginal children and young people in detention was 7.3 per 10,000 Aboriginal children and young people. This is consistent with the rate in 2022-23 (7.6) and is significantly lower than the rate a decade ago (14.5 per 10,000 Aboriginal children and young people in 2014-15). In 2023-24, the rate for Aboriginal children and young people was 6.6 times the rate for non-Aboriginal children and young people (0.7 per 10,000 non-Aboriginal children and young people). The rate for non-Aboriginal children is consistent with the rate in 2022-23 (1) and a decade ago (1.2 in 2014-15).

Measure 15.1.3 Proportion of first-time youth alleged offenders (10-17 years) cautioned by police

In 2023-24, Victoria Police cautioned 82 per cent of Aboriginal first-time alleged offenders aged 10-17, representing 273 out of 333 Aboriginal first-time alleged offenders. Cautions mean that a person will not go to court for their alleged offence and will not record a criminal conviction. This is the highest recorded percentage for this measure in the VAAF. Police cautioning of Aboriginal first-time alleged offenders continues to increase since 2018-19. This is a reversal of the trend before 2018-19. Now police are more likely to caution Aboriginal young people than their non-Aboriginal peers.

These results show the benefits of the Aboriginal Youth Cautioning Program. Diverting young people away from formal courts systems leads to better outcomes. Victoria Police developed the Program along with other policy amendments to reduce barriers to police issuing cautions and to increase the number of cautions issued to Aboriginal youth. The program reflected feedback from Aboriginal community stakeholders, including the Aboriginal Justice Caucus, who strongly encouraged greater use of police cautions to reduce the over-representation of Aboriginal and other vulnerable children and young people in Victoria’s justice systems. The program was introduced in recognition that diverting young people away from formal courts system leads to better outcomes. For further information.

There remains a large volume of first-time youth alleged offenders whose Aboriginal status is unknown. Positive Aboriginal identification is an ongoing initiative that can ensure access to First Peoples’ alternative justice pathways.

Measure 15.2.1 Number and rate of unique adult female alleged offenders processed by police

In 2023-24, Aboriginal women were 6.1 times more likely to receive a caution, arrest, or summons than their non-Aboriginal peers, this is the highest since the VAAF began recording this measure. There were 1,413 (699.4 per 10,000) First Peoples women recorded as alleged offenders in 2023-24. In the same year there were 14,487 (54.3 per 10,000) non-Aboriginal women recorded as alleged offenders. Outcomes for Aboriginal women have worsened over time. Small decreases in the rate of alleged offences involving non-Aboriginal women have come at the same time as the rate of Aboriginal women has increased since 2021-22. Successful progress for this measure is reducing the rate of police processing and arrest of Aboriginal women by Victoria Police.

Victoria Police committed in March 2024 to completing 79 actions to address injustice relating to policing by the end of 2025, following the Chief Commissioner of Victoria Police’s appearance before the Yoorrook Justice Commission in May 2023. This included identifying risks of systemic racism, embedding cultural awareness training and exploring the introduction of a cautioning program for adults, among other reforms. First Peoples led Truth-Telling and self-determination have created the environment whereby Victoria Police has made a genuine commitment to fundamentally reconsidering and reforming its operations to partner with and build trust with Aboriginal community members and organisations to realise better outcomes. These changes will impact a range of output measures but are focussed on reducing unnecessary and disproportionate interactions between First Peoples and the criminal justice system.

The Yoorrook Justice Commission made 18 recommendations on urgent reforms to the criminal justice system in its 2023 interim report, Yoorrook for Justice. As of October 2024, the Government has committed to supporting three recommendations, supporting eight recommendations in-principle, and to further considering five recommendations. Recommendations 30, 31 and 36 are supported by Government. Recommendation 30 relates to police conduct following the decriminalisation of public intoxication, and calls for the Chief Commissioner of Police to monitor police conduct and ensure members do not use existing powers to unnecessarily take intoxicated people into custody, for Government’s planned independent evaluation to be First Peoples-led and for results to be publicly available. Recommendation 31 is to introduce mandatory criteria, including in relation to ending systemic racism, for the selection, appointment and performance reviews of the Chief Commissioner of Police. Recommendation 36 calls for the Government to ensure the Youth Justice Act 2024 embeds human rights, including the distinct cultural rights of First Peoples, in all aspects of the youth justice system and its administration.

The recommendations not supported by Government relate to a series of reforms to the Bail Act 1977 (recommendation 32), and a proposal to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14 years, with a prohibition on the detention of children under 16 years (recommendation 35).

Measure 15.2.2 Average daily number and rate of Aboriginal women under corrections supervision in prison and community corrections

In 2023-24, less Aboriginal women were either in community-based corrections supervision or in supervision in prison than in 2022-23.

On an average day in 2023-24, there were 155 Aboriginal women under community‑based corrections supervision. This represents a rate of 73.4 per 10,000 Aboriginal women. This is a lower average daily number (and rate) than the previous year, when Community Correctional Services managed 164 Aboriginal women under community-based corrections supervision (at a rate of 73.4 per 10,000 Aboriginal women). This is a part of a continuing long-term trend of the number and rate declining since 2017-18.

Over the same period (2022-23 to 2023-24), the number and rate of Aboriginal women under corrections supervision in prisons decreased. On an average day in 2022-23, there were 36 Aboriginal women in prison compared to 41 women the previous year and 46 women in 2021-22. This represents a rate of 17.1 per 10,000 Aboriginal women, compared to a rate of 20.0 per 10,000 and 23.0 per 10,000 the previous years.

It is promising that the number and rate of Aboriginal women under corrections supervision in prison has been decreasing year on year since 2018-19. Continuing to reduce over‑representation remains a high priority. Aboriginal women in Victoria remain far more likely to be placed under corrections supervision (either in community-based corrections or in prison) than non-Aboriginal women. In 2023-24, Aboriginal women were 15.8 times more likely to be under community-based supervision than non-Aboriginal women. They were also 17.6 times more likely to be under corrections supervision in prison than non‑Aboriginal women.

Measure 15.2.3 Proportion of women who return to prison under sentence within two years of release

In 2023-24, 35.2 per cent of Aboriginal women who had left prison returned within two years. Prison recidivism rates have increased yearly since 2021-22.

This is a negative trend across the reporting period for both recidivism for Aboriginal women under measure 15.2.3 and the rate of Aboriginal women being held in prison under measure 15.2.2.

In 2023-24, 28.5 per cent of non-Aboriginal women leaving prison returned within two years. This percentage has remained stable over the past ten years. Although this does not represent a significant difference from Aboriginal women, it is concerning that increased recidivism rates among Aboriginal women have occurred during a period when recidivism rates for non-Aboriginal women have been stable.

When looking at longer‑term trends, the proportion of Aboriginal women returning to custody has almost halved since 2010-11. In that year, 63.2 per cent of Aboriginal women returned to prison within two years of their release.

Measure 15.2.4 Proportion of women in prison on remand

Between 2022‑23 and 2023-24, the proportion of Aboriginal women on remand decreased from 56.1 to 52.8 per cent. During this time, the proportion of non‑Aboriginal women on remand decreased from 49.3 to 40.5 per cent. In 2022-23, Aboriginal women represented 6.4 per cent of all women in prison. This is the lowest this rate has been since 2017-18. The slow decrease over the past three years in the proportion of Aboriginal women on remand show positive change is happening. This is a change in a long-term trend since 2011-12 of increasingly high proportion of Aboriginal women on remand.

In 2023, the Victorian Government amended the Bail Act 1977 (Vic) to remove provisions introduced in 2013 and 2017. This followed strong advocacy from the Victorian Aboriginal justice sector. This included targeting reverse onus tests to more serious offending. It also included repealing two of three offences under the Bail Act 1977 (Vic) and gave consideration of the impact of custody on Aboriginal women, such as the impact on caregiving responsibilities and the impact of trauma or family violence. The amendments were expected to reduce rates of remand for people accused of low‑level offending.

Further bail reforms were announced 12 March 2025. The Bail Amendment Bill 2025 passed both houses of Parliament on 21 March 2025, and removed the requirement that bail be considered a ‘last resort’ for youth offenders, made community safety the overarching principle for bail consideration of all bail decision-makers, and delivered a range of other changes to strengthen existing laws.

Measure 15.3.1 Number and rate of unique adult male alleged offenders processed by police

Aboriginal men were 7.1 times more likely to receive a caution, arrest, or summons in 2023-24 than non-Aboriginal men. The number of Aboriginal men who received a caution, arrest or summons continued to rise in 2023-24, to 3,032 men. In this year, Victoria Police processed Aboriginal men at a rate of 1,395.9 per 10,000. In contrast, the rate for non-Aboriginal men processed by police was 196.4 per 10,000.

When analysing the experience of Aboriginal men with police compared with non-Aboriginal men a different trend emerges. The rate of non-Aboriginal cautions, arrests, or summons have remained similar since 2007-08. Comparatively there has been a steady increase in the rate of Aboriginal men processed by police. This represents a deepening of existing over-representation of First Peoples in the criminal justice system and may be associated over-policing of First Peoples communities.

Victoria Police committed in March 2024 to completing 79 actions to address injustice relating to policing by the end of 2025, as discussed at measure 15.2.1, following the Chief Commissioner of Victoria Police’s appearance before the Yoorrook Justice Commission in May 2023. These reforms will impact a range of output measures and work to reduce over-representation of First Peoples in the criminal justice system.

In 2023-24 almost half (48.0 per cent) of all Aboriginal men who leave prison return within two years. Ten years ago (2014-15) 60.6 per cent returned to prison. While this reduction is progress for Aboriginal men there is still an over-representation of Aboriginal men returning to prison compared with their non-Aboriginal peers.

For non-Aboriginal men, rates have marginally decreased in recent years. In 2023-24, 38.7 per cent of non-Aboriginal men returned to prison within two years, compared to 39.4 per cent the previous year. Non-Aboriginal men returning to prison is declining from a peak of 42.8 per cent in 2014-15.

In the final report of the Cultural Review of the Adult Custodial Corrections System the panel identified the lack of institutional reform in the corrections system as a major barrier to progress.

“Despite progress to elevate rehabilitation and reducing recidivism as primary objectives, cultural change across the Victorian adult custodial corrections system remains incomplete. There is a clear gap between the intention of policies and programs and their operational translation. “

Recommendation 43 of the Yoorrook Justice Commission’s Yoorrook for Justice report recommends that the Victorian Government must reform the prison system based on the recommendations of the Cultural Review. The Victorian Government is supporting these changes in principle and is monitoring progress through an established Cultural Review Implementation Subgroup.